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Image for the poem You want a car, not a goat (competition entry)

You want a car, not a goat (competition entry)

Imagine three numbered doors,
Behind which you cannot see,
Behind one a car, the others goats,
And a host that smiles with glee.

For the host, he knows everything,
He can see behind each door,
But he is at least sporting chap,
So pay attention, I do implore.

Once you choose a door,
He leaves your chosen door closed,
Instead he will open a different door,
Where a goat becomes exposed.

He will ask you a simple question,
Do you stay or do you switch?
You can choose either unopened door,
The tricky part is: which.

If you stick with your original choice,
Your chance of winning is one third,
If he lets you switch to the last door,
Believe me, that option is preferred.

For the host does not choose by chance,
He always reveals a goat at first,
So if you are clever you will switch,
And your odds improve, (become two thirds).

On the other hand, suppose if:
The host opened a random door?
This is a subtle but different thing,
So the odds are different to before.

In this case the odds are dead even,
It is exactly a fifty fifty split,
So my advice regardless of the host,
It never hurts to switch.
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