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P(Committed A Crime Given Convicted Of The Crime) > ?
Thinking of Fenton's
lie of omission ... which keeps
the pig in the poke ...
lie of omission ... which keeps
the pig in the poke ...
Published 10th Jun 2019
| Edited 29th Mar 2020
Author's Note
I follow the probability and law blog
http://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/
and began wondering whether anyone had worked out, 'what is the probability that someone had committed a crime given that they'd been convicted of the crime'.
Then I made the 'artistic' leap of assuming they had and they weren't telling us.
Just imagine if the probability that you've committed murder is 5% given that you've been convicted of it. As to the true position ... who knows?
http://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/
and began wondering whether anyone had worked out, 'what is the probability that someone had committed a crime given that they'd been convicted of the crime'.
Then I made the 'artistic' leap of assuming they had and they weren't telling us.
Just imagine if the probability that you've committed murder is 5% given that you've been convicted of it. As to the true position ... who knows?
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10th Jun 2019 9:36pm
Hmmm, maybe this is where statistical generalisations reveal their limits in the face of specifics?
11th Jun 2019 9:06am
Hi Josh, thanks for your comment ...
We got the number of Iraqi dead from Gulf War II from this sort of analysis ...
We got the number of Iraqi dead from Gulf War II from this sort of analysis ...
11th Jun 2019 2:05pm
Interesting; you might enjoy this clip from George Carlin which starts off on a related theme:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuEQixrBKCc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuEQixrBKCc
