Corona Virus ( Covid-19 )
Anonymous
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Ahavati said:In reference TO the numbers—Worldometer and Johns Hopkins have been virtually running neck'n neck with statistics, and they have the death rate at 11% worldwide.
Plus, we don't know how many "flu" victims had the virus, as testing in the US was delayed for weeks, and STILL is not widely available. I can't trust the US numbers because we simply. don't. know.
And WHO ( and I don't mean the Word Health Organization ) is to blame for that because he DOWNPLAYED IT?! That's right, it doesn't matter. What matters is that we stick together as a species and defeat this thing with science and technology. And hope to the Universe we learn a lesson from it.
WHO report March 20: 234000 reported cases, 9800 deaths = 4.3% mortality.
10% would put it in category of the Spanish flu, which was a far far more dangerous contagion.
Plus, we don't know how many "flu" victims had the virus, as testing in the US was delayed for weeks, and STILL is not widely available. I can't trust the US numbers because we simply. don't. know.
And WHO ( and I don't mean the Word Health Organization ) is to blame for that because he DOWNPLAYED IT?! That's right, it doesn't matter. What matters is that we stick together as a species and defeat this thing with science and technology. And hope to the Universe we learn a lesson from it.
WHO report March 20: 234000 reported cases, 9800 deaths = 4.3% mortality.
10% would put it in category of the Spanish flu, which was a far far more dangerous contagion.
hemihead said:
WHO report March 20: 234000 reported cases, 9800 deaths = 4.3% mortality.
10% would put it in category of the Spanish flu, which was a far far more dangerous contagion.
Wrap your mind around these numbers. Both are known reliable sources. Is WHO behind worldwide or what?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Active Cases: 172,654
Currently Infected Patients
164,743 (95%)
in Mild Condition
7,911 (5%)
Serious or Critical
Cases which had an outcome: 103,353
91,952 (89%)
Recovered / Discharged
11,401 (11%)
Deaths
WHO report March 20: 234000 reported cases, 9800 deaths = 4.3% mortality.
10% would put it in category of the Spanish flu, which was a far far more dangerous contagion.
Wrap your mind around these numbers. Both are known reliable sources. Is WHO behind worldwide or what?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Active Cases: 172,654
Currently Infected Patients
164,743 (95%)
in Mild Condition
7,911 (5%)
Serious or Critical
Cases which had an outcome: 103,353
91,952 (89%)
Recovered / Discharged
11,401 (11%)
Deaths
Ahavati said:
Wrap your mind around these numbers. Both are known reliable sources. Is WHO behind worldwide or what?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Cases which had an outcome: 103,353
91,952 (89%)
Recovered / Discharged
11,401 (11%)
Deaths
Ah I see. “Cases which had an outcome”, is much less than “reported cases”. They are different metrics. Reported cases is roughly defined as anyone who has been tested or assessed, depending on which country, as having the illness.
“Cases which had on outcome” means people who are either well now, or dead! The 234000 includes all people, around half of whom have not yet either recovered or died.
Mortality rate of people who get it is around 4% (although this varies widely by country). In India, for example, it will be much higher.
Wrap your mind around these numbers. Both are known reliable sources. Is WHO behind worldwide or what?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Cases which had an outcome: 103,353
91,952 (89%)
Recovered / Discharged
11,401 (11%)
Deaths
Ah I see. “Cases which had an outcome”, is much less than “reported cases”. They are different metrics. Reported cases is roughly defined as anyone who has been tested or assessed, depending on which country, as having the illness.
“Cases which had on outcome” means people who are either well now, or dead! The 234000 includes all people, around half of whom have not yet either recovered or died.
Mortality rate of people who get it is around 4% (although this varies widely by country). In India, for example, it will be much higher.
This is the danger of statistics....they can be cut a thousand ways and definitions are slippery.
My preferred (and that’s just me) metric is “overall, if you get this illness, what is your chance of dying” = roughly 4%.
It then breaks down in to your age, state of your health, healthcare services ability/available beds, and what country you live in.
My preferred (and that’s just me) metric is “overall, if you get this illness, what is your chance of dying” = roughly 4%.
It then breaks down in to your age, state of your health, healthcare services ability/available beds, and what country you live in.
hemihead said:This is the danger of statistics....they can be cut a thousand ways and definitions are slippery.
My preferred (and that’s just me) metric is “overall, if you get this illness, what is your chance of dying” = roughly 4%.
It then breaks down in to your age, healthcare response ability, and what country you live in.
You're right, and they can be bent, I know that all too well. But either way, the total number of Coronavirus Cases ( according to Worldometer and Johns Hopkins ) is roughly 276,007 ( over a quarter of a million people worldwide ): Total Deaths are 11,401, thus the death rate is calculated at 11%.
Why did WHO have such a low report of death cases than the other sources? I don't guess it matters when you average it out.
My preferred (and that’s just me) metric is “overall, if you get this illness, what is your chance of dying” = roughly 4%.
It then breaks down in to your age, healthcare response ability, and what country you live in.
You're right, and they can be bent, I know that all too well. But either way, the total number of Coronavirus Cases ( according to Worldometer and Johns Hopkins ) is roughly 276,007 ( over a quarter of a million people worldwide ): Total Deaths are 11,401, thus the death rate is calculated at 11%.
Why did WHO have such a low report of death cases than the other sources? I don't guess it matters when you average it out.
Ahavati said:
You're right, and they can be bent, I know that all too well. But either way, the total number of Coronavirus Cases ( according to Worldometer and Johns Hopkins is roughly 276,007 ( over a quarter of a million people worldwide ): Total Deaths are 11,401, thus the death rate is calculated at 11%.
Why did WHO have such a low report of cases ( under 100,000 )?
Not sure about your point on WHO number. Their March 20 report says 243000 cases, which is close to your source. The data from less developed countries is less certain, so I’d say they are in relative agreement.
If you have a calculator handy, may I trouble you to divide 11400 by 276009. The answer you can verify is 0.041, or 4% mortality rate on reported cases.
You're right, and they can be bent, I know that all too well. But either way, the total number of Coronavirus Cases ( according to Worldometer and Johns Hopkins is roughly 276,007 ( over a quarter of a million people worldwide ): Total Deaths are 11,401, thus the death rate is calculated at 11%.
Why did WHO have such a low report of cases ( under 100,000 )?
Not sure about your point on WHO number. Their March 20 report says 243000 cases, which is close to your source. The data from less developed countries is less certain, so I’d say they are in relative agreement.
If you have a calculator handy, may I trouble you to divide 11400 by 276009. The answer you can verify is 0.041, or 4% mortality rate on reported cases.
Anonymous
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For completeness, In case our wires are crossed, the WHO I am talking about is the World Health Organisation, who are coordinating the global response (as per their work on Ebola and various other infectious disease outbreaks). They are what I use for running my own mathematical models, as per formula mentioned a few pages back.
hemihead said:
Not sure about your point on WHO number. Their March 20 report says 243000 cases, which is close to your source. The data from less developed countries is less certain, so I’d say they are in relative agreement.
If you have a calculator handy, may I trouble you to divide 11400 by 276009. The answer you can verify is 0.041, or 4% mortality rate on reported cases.
I meant their reported deaths; I edited that part. I did the numbers, and it comes up to 4%; I was hoping you could tell me how they are deriving 11%?
Not sure about your point on WHO number. Their March 20 report says 243000 cases, which is close to your source. The data from less developed countries is less certain, so I’d say they are in relative agreement.
If you have a calculator handy, may I trouble you to divide 11400 by 276009. The answer you can verify is 0.041, or 4% mortality rate on reported cases.
I meant their reported deaths; I edited that part. I did the numbers, and it comes up to 4%; I was hoping you could tell me how they are deriving 11%?
Anonymous said:<< post removed >>
Well, it so division, so ok
Type the 11000 number in to a calculator. Press divide. Type the 276000 number. Press the = sign. Answer 0.4. Multiply that by 100 to get answer in percentage. Answer : 4.
If you use a spreadsheet write =11700/376000x100 and press enter
If you are using a Texas Instruments calculator type 11700, enter, 276000, divide, 100, multiply. Answer = 4
Better yet, ignore some clown on the internet, go to the WHO site and read the March 20th update.
Well, it so division, so ok
Type the 11000 number in to a calculator. Press divide. Type the 276000 number. Press the = sign. Answer 0.4. Multiply that by 100 to get answer in percentage. Answer : 4.
If you use a spreadsheet write =11700/376000x100 and press enter
If you are using a Texas Instruments calculator type 11700, enter, 276000, divide, 100, multiply. Answer = 4
Better yet, ignore some clown on the internet, go to the WHO site and read the March 20th update.
Anonymous
<< post removed >>
Ahavati said:
I meant their reported deaths; I edited that part. I did the numbers, and it comes up to 4%; I was hoping you could tell me how they are deriving 11%?
Again we may have wires crossed. WHO are reporting around the 4% number. To save us both time, perhaps easiest if I share the link to their site, which also includes daily numbers reports, from which you may care to derive the figures yourself....I do it because I’m looking forward to when it moves away from exponential growth....the 4% figure I expect to see climb, as the US, poorer Africa, and India will be hit hard, and their reported cases figures will be lower due to testing constraints.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
I meant their reported deaths; I edited that part. I did the numbers, and it comes up to 4%; I was hoping you could tell me how they are deriving 11%?
Again we may have wires crossed. WHO are reporting around the 4% number. To save us both time, perhaps easiest if I share the link to their site, which also includes daily numbers reports, from which you may care to derive the figures yourself....I do it because I’m looking forward to when it moves away from exponential growth....the 4% figure I expect to see climb, as the US, poorer Africa, and India will be hit hard, and their reported cases figures will be lower due to testing constraints.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
