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The goat solution

Is the goat problem right for me?
A lot of people ask that question.

should I let the wonders and the mystery
be found through understanding
of the goat problem?

If you wanted to give "yes" a try, then by all means,
continue reading.

First google the Monty Hall problem,
to get you up to speed.

So in Monty Hall's question,
He has these three doors,
door number one,
or door number two,
or door number three,
there is ONE prize.
The other two have goats.

So, after you  pick,
Monty crosses off a door,
Or you could say, picks his choice,
and then Monty say, t
he car is behind one of the se two doors.

He offers you to keep your pick,
or to switch to his pick.

On some puzzler type newspaper columns,
back in the 1970;s  
The big question up for debate was:

Should you keep, your pick,
or switch?

Back then, this puzzler was a hot topic.
In the math puzzler world,
lots of PHD mathamaticians refused to believe
So even the great minds of the day,
were dead set on believing something else.

Ultimately,
Everything mathematical has a
Correct Answer
Right?

One way of gaining perspective,
 is to make a different but related game show.
lets make 100 doors.  One prize. 99 goats.

The original problem has 3 doors.  
you could say that Monty crosses off one door,
or you could look at it as he picks one door,
and ignores any others.

Looking at it that way, with 100 doors,
Monty will pick one,
Now leaving his pick, and your pick, to decide between.
Should you stay with your choice,
or go to Monty''s choice?

Now with jthe hundred doors game,
you can use your gut instincts to think that
My odds of picking the right door at the beginning,
is 1 out of a hundred.
One out of a hundred.
So many doors.... How could I ever pick the right one.

Now Monty knows which is the correct prize door,
so since most of the time, I
 have picked the incorrect door,
Monty will have to pick the correct one,
just so the correct one is included in this final situation
of having two doors.

So in the rare event you did pick the right door,
then monty will pick a goat door.
but in the ninety nine times out of a hundred that you have picked wrong,
Monty will be forced to pick the right door.

So now maybe you can see the advantage of  switching to Mony''s pick.

Now with this new perspective, let us go back to the three door situation.

one time out of three, you pick the right door.
This makes Monty pick a goat door

two times out of three,  you pick the wrong door,
which forces Monty to pick the correct door.

So that is the story.  
and i am sticking to it.  

But what is 'it'?

 
rabbitquest
Written by rabbitquest
Published
Author's Note
Back in the seventies, when lots of people watched TV, a game show host, named Monty Hall, A puzzler came up in various math puzzler forums, to state this problem slightly differently than described...
Back in the seventies, when lots of people watched TV, a game show host, named Monty Hall, A puzzler came up in various math puzzler forums, to state this problem slightly differently than described above. The puzzler said...
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